Who's Next

Incidently, if you think our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were big success, they are starting to be rumblings that we might heat up the war in Iran before the November elections.

My first piece of evidence came from listening to old Rush Limbaugh at lunch yesterday. Rush was talking about Senator Kerry's rationale for supporting the Iraqi War Resolution (IWR), and suggesting that if Iran is next on the list. He speculated that, by Kerry's own rationale, if the vote on an Iranian War Resolution (confusingly enough, also IWR) comes before the election than Kerry will be duty bound to vote for it. Hilarious.

I was surprised to hear Iran had been put back on the table, frankly. I don't think there's anybody who doesn't know that the odds of us invading Iran are reasonably high if we reelect President, and much lower if we elect Senator Kerry. Which, to me, doesn't seem like a selling point. But maybe I'm just out of step with my fellow Americans.

But Rush isn't really the sort of guy you can take seriously on these sorts of issues. Today's Salon had an editorial, however, details the number of respected White House advisors who are pushing an "invade-Iraq" policy.

". . . the perception that the neocons -- including Wolfowitz, Richard Perle and Douglas Feith -- have been routed, or are in retreat, could not be further from the truth. They are as firmly in control of the levers of real power in the government as they were in the yearlong, synchronized buildup to their war in Iraq. Not a single National Security Council or Pentagon official who eagerly rode the bandwagon for the war has been fired. Dick Cheney's chief of staff, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, and aide John Hannah continue to enjoy the full confidence of the vice president."

So the people who got us into Iraq are all still advising the President. That's comforting.

It was stated quite expressly by Rice this past weekend: Don't worry about our failure to find any evidence of WMD after our preemptive war on Iraq -- we may be forced to take such preemptive action very soon against its neighbor, Iran.

If that October surprise doesn't rally voters back around Bush and ensure four more years for him and the neocons, what will?

The pattern of preparation for this is all too familiar from the buildup to war with Iraq. First, the war drums are sounded by the same old "experts"; then they are amplified by alarmist columnists. Once you see Krauthammer or Ledeen opining, as they have over the past two months, that Iran's nuclear capability poses the gravest possible threat to Civilization as We Know It, and that The World Cannot Afford to Wait and Negotiate, then you can guarantee -- conveniently close to the election to panic voters into supporting the president -- that Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld will pick up the chorus.

Ledeen has already written at least two columns on the subject. Krauthammer, prophet of the Iraq war, has made quite clear his determination to unleash a new one.

We'll see what happens. Personally I don't think it's that crazy to assume that the Bush Administration will continue to do what they've already done. I leave it up to the reader to determine whether or not that is a good idea.