Thursday, May 31, 2007

The New Guy

Hugh Hewitt's latest article is about Fred Thompson's imminent entrance into the Republican Race. Hewitt says that he hasn't actually picked a candidate (even though he wrote a book about how great it would be for Romney to win the nomination). He then notes that he thinks Thompson brings a lot to the trenches but he's not actually Ronald Reagan. Then there's this clincher.
There isn't any reason to believe that Fred would have any easier a go of it than Rudy or Mitt, and as that becomes obvious in the days and weeks and months after his entry, the folks hoping for an easy win are going to drop that enthusiasm and start looking hard again at all three, asking which one is the best candidate.

These are the Al Davis Republicans --"Just win, baby"-- and their support will be decisive in 1Q08. One reason I suspect the Fred boom may be over before it has even really begun is the recognition that on the stump Fred will be seen as the southerner he is --slow, folksy, plain spoken. In a year when an anti-Bush may be needed, a Brooklyn-born Mob-busting tough guy, or the hyper-intelligent, hyper-eloquent investment banker turnaround executive may emerge quickly as far more likely to be the "something completely different " that Reagan was in 1980, and thus the strong preference of the Al Davis GOPers.
I will note that on the key issue of the day, Iraq and the War on Terror, none of the Republican Candidates at this point differ substantially from President Bush. If a Republican gets in the White House, assume that the current foreign policy will continue.

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