Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Remember the Math

President Bush gave a press conference today, where he answered a lot of questions predominately on Iraq and on Social Security. On Iraq, President Bush still isn't able to come up with any mistakes he might have made but at least he avoided the question better this time.

On Social Security has one idea that he's kind of latched onto.
. . . And here's the problem: the -- as dictated by just math, there is -- the system will be in the red in 13 years, and in 2042 the system will be broke. That's because people are living longer, and the number of people paying into the Social Security trust is dwindling.

. . . The threshold question is, will Congress -- is Congress willing to say we have a problem. We do have a problem. The math shows we have a problem. And now is the time to act on the problem. And once people realize there's a problem, then I believe there's an obligation for all sides to bring forth ideas.

. . . I am going to continue to speak directly to the American people about this issue and remind them about the math; and remind them that if you're a senior, nothing changes; and speak to the younger folks coming up about the forecasts.
Here is some math President Bush would like you to remember.

h The Social Security System will be running a deficit in 2017-2018 and the trustfund will be empty in 2042.

h If this happens, the system will require benefit cuts and / or tax increases.


Here is some math that President Bush would like you to not remember.

y The United States government is running an enormous deficit due to poor fiscal policies forwarded by the Bush Administration.

y The Social Security projections (showing it falling apart in 2042) are based on pessimistic assumptions about the future of the American Economy. The promised benefits of personal accounts are based on optimistic assumptions about the future of the American Economy. It is unlikely that both scenarios will play out at the same time.

y Personal accounts will be much more expensive to maintain as compared to how social security costs (where less that 2% is siphoned off to pay for administrative costs).


On the plus side President Bush is promising not to cut benefits to current seniors. Although that begs the question of how he is going to pay for the transition costs.

Also for those of you who believe we have a liberal media, check out these questions.
Q. Senate Democratic leaders have painted a very bleak picture of the U.S. economy. Harry Reid was talking about soup lines, and Hillary Clinton was talking about the economy being on the verge of collapse. Yet, in the same breath, they say that Social Security is rock-solid and there's no crisis there. How are you going to work -- you said you're going to reach out to these people -- how are you going to work with people who seem to have divorced themselves from reality?

. . . Q. Mr. President, we saw the Democrats yesterday devote nine hours to Ms. Rice. We may see something similar with regard to Judge Gonzales. There's just simply a lot of anger on the Hill by Democrats at you, personally, and at your administration. And isn't this going to dog your efforts at whatever you do down the line, from the Supreme Court to immigration to whatever?
Yeah those were some real toughies from the "liberal" press corps.

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