The Trials of Conservatism

E. J. Dionne, Jr. has an article today about the fractures in the conservative movement. He begins his article with the following sentences.

"Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure.

In politics, this means that if a leader is seen as doing well, his side in the debate holds together and suppresses disagreements that are quite real but don't seem worth pursuing if they get in the way of winning.

It also means that if a leader is perceived as doing badly, those quite real disagreements are seen as much more important. Parts of the leader's political coalition try to disengage themselves from the perceived failure and differentiate themselves from those whom they see as incompetent and thus representing something other than the true faith."

While I agree with the upshot of Mr. Dionne's analysis, I would argue that there is a countervailing pressure. Political movements expect more out of their leaders when they are in power. They also feel less vulnerable to whatever bad stuff they think the other side is going to do. That's why in 2000, many Nader Voters, I believe, were willing to vote for him because they believed that after 8 years of Clinton things were on a bit of an even keel. They felt comfortable. It's not that they liked Candidate Bush, but they weren't afraid of him.

I'm not sure that in this election we can count on Republican dissatisfaction with President Bush's failures to cause much of an exodus. I think they still fear "President Kerry" enough to vote for President Bush. Of course that's assuming no serious third party candidate shows up (none so far) and that they vote at all. Some Republicans, maybe many Republicans will stay home on election day, which could only help Kerry.