The Putin Connection

Zev Chafets writes an editorial for the New York daily News on Russian President Putin's statement that he had warned the United States of a potential terrorist by Saddam Hussein. Here's how Chafets puts it.

"President Bush got some very good news last week from one of the key 2004 battleground states: Russia. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin confided that he warned the U.S. after 9/11 but before the invasion of Iraq that Saddam Hussein was preparing terrorist attacks on America and its interests abroad."

An AP story prints President Putin's words and gives some more shading to this story.

"Russia gave the Bush administration intelligence after the September 11 attacks that suggested Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was preparing attacks in the United States, President Vladimir Putin said Friday.

Putin said he couldn't comment on how critical the Russians' information was in the U.S. decision to invade Iraq. He said Russia didn't have any information that Saddam's regime had actually been behind any terrorist acts.

"After Sept. 11, 2001, and before the start of the military operation in Iraq, the Russian special services, the intelligence service, received information that officials from Saddam's regime were preparing terrorist attacks in the United States and outside it against the U.S. military and other interests," Putin said.

He said the United States had thanked Russia for the information. There was no immediate comment from U.S. officials.

"It's one thing to have information that Saddam's regime is preparing terrorist attacks, (but) we didn't have information that it was involved in any known terrorist attacks," Putin said in the Kazakh capital Astana after regional economic and security summits.

Putin said the intelligence didn't cause Russia to waver from its firm opposition to the war.

"Despite that information about terrorist attacks being prepared by Saddam's regime, Russia's position on Iraq remains unchanged," Putin said."

A little context.

Early last week Vice President Cheney commented on the links between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda.

On Thursday, if memory serves, the 9/11 commission issued a report that debunked said links.

On Friday Rush Limbaugh claimed that the report lent credence to the Prague Meeting between Mohammed Atta and Iraqi Intelligence when in fact the report stated the opposite. But that's neither here nor there.

Also on Friday, Mr. Putin made his statements. Mr. Putin had also stated, on an earlier occasion, "I am deeply convinced that President Bush's political adversaries have no moral right to attack him over Iraq because they did exactly the same. It suffices to recall Yugoslavia."

So let's not have the illusion that Mr. Putin is a disinterested observer.

But let's look at the scope of his claim. First of all, it says nothing about any contacts that may have existed between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. Vice President Cheney and President Bush claimed that such connection existed; the 9/11 report claimed that such connections didn't exist.

It's very very unspecific. We don't know the seriousness of these plans or how far they had advanced (if they had advanced at all). We do know how Russia acted during the run up to the Iraq war; they opposed our invasion. I'm not sure what to think of that. I mean if Iraq was planning serious terrorist activities on the same level as September 11th, why wouldn't they support President Bush's choice to take out Iraq? Did President Putin want us to suffer those casualties? It just seems somewhat conflicted.

Of course the other answer is that these supposed Iraqi terrorist plans didn't amount to much.

A few other points from Chafets article.

"One answer is that there was no warning, that Putin is lying to curry favor with Bush. But this explanation raises an uncomfortable question. One of Kerry's main themes has been that Bush can't get along with foreigners. But how does that square with the accusation that the president of Russia is actively campaigning on Bush's behalf?"

It's nice that President Bush is able to get President Putin to lie for him (following the logic of this paragraph). But words are extremely cheap, aren't they? I think I'd be more impressed if President Bush talked President Putin into sending troops into Iraq.

"But right now, I'd say that John Kerry is in big trouble. If he can't carry Russia, he's not going to win in November."

This statement is fascinating on so many levels. But unfortunately the election is unlikely to be held in Russia, but here in the United States. And I think President Bush is going to need more than vague statements by the Russian President.